banks

Are Energy Stocks And Banks Cracking?

Posted on by George Mahfouz

As technology stocks continue to tick up to new record highs, banks and even more so energy stocks are showing signs of weakness. Yesterday, the Nasdaq (chart) hit an all time high of 6221.99 and the S&P 500 (chart) also notched a record recently at 2418.71. That said, the energy sector has lost almost 10 percent in the last month or so and the banking sector is beginning to technically breakdown. A very noticeable divergence is happening here and I think it is time to pay attention to this recent dynamic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) remains above 21000 and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) is seeking direction.

I am not surprised that certain sectors of the market are showing weakness which is only normal with the tremendous run the markets have had since the election, however, it is the sectors that are breaking down that is a bit alarming to me. One has to ask is the price action in oil and energy stocks indicative of weakening demand hence a weakening economy? Or is this just a matter of too much supply in oil regardless of the O.P.E.C. commitment to its production cuts. As far as the banks are concerned, one would also think with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at their upcoming meeting in June and committing to additional rate hikes this year. that this would be bullish for bank stocks. Not the case recently. I am a little perplexed to the way the tape has been acting as of late especially pertaining to the aforementioned sectors.

The technical shape of the key indices appear to be intact with the exception of the small-cap Russell 2000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) is trading well above its 50-day moving average, along with the S&P 500 (chart)  trading near all-time highs and the Nasdaq (chart) as mentioned above hit an all-time high yesterday. However, the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) is trading below its 50-day moving average and has been challenging certain support zones lately. This is yet another potential alarm along with the energy and banking sector weakness lately. So I would not be surprised to see the selling pressure in these particular sectors continue in the month of June which is historically one of the weakest month of the year for stocks. Good luck to all 🙂

~George

As Promised, Vol Is Back!

Posted on by George Mahfouz

We knew it was only a matter of time. After trading in the most narrow range for the better part of the summer the VIX (see chart below) which is the ticker for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index spiked this week over 60%!  This on fears that monetary policy changes are forthcoming here in the United States and abroad, especially as it pertains to interest rates. How is this a surprise though? There is not a day that goes by, in fact there is not an hour that goes by without headlines coming out pertaining to the Federal Reserve and what they will or will not do with interest rates.

Look my view is simple, count on it! Count on central banks changing their position on interest rates at some point in time. What amazes me is how much the markets and investors have become so reliant and seemingly make every investment decision based on whether interest rates remain near zero or begin to rise. How about this concept? Take a look at the premiums the markets have enjoyed over the past several years and minus that out. Then in my humble opinion we get back to fair value in stocks and markets. Although this has been one of the most profound bull markets in history, at some point in time equities are going to have to get off of the dependence on central bank accommodations. I look for ward to the day that we will be able to properly evaluate stocks and asset classes based on their respective fundamentals not on Federal Reserve policies.

Until then, the bulls can continue to enjoy the ride they have been on and I will continue to pay close attention to overbought and oversold conditions. With volatility back, this does create opportunity for the trader that is not too concerned with valuations. However, I expect that in the not so distant future, valuations will actually matter again. Good luck to all 🙂

~George

VIX chart George Mahfouz Jr

A Respite From The Sell-Off!

Posted on by George Mahfouz

Stocks snapped back sharply on Friday after a week of relentless selling pressure. On Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart), surged 313.66 points, the Nasdaq (chart) popped 70.67 points, the S&P 500 (chart) notched a gain of 35.70 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) closed Friday out up 18.27 points. For most of last week the markets were under tremendous pressure as oil continued to plummet along with bank stocks. On Thursday U.S. crude oil closed at a 13-year low only to snap back on Friday gaining over 12%. One of the reasons why oil has bounced off of multi-year lows is a rumor was floating around that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries aka O.P.E.C. was prepared to cut production. We will see if this becomes the case. Furthermore, the European banks have been sold off ruthlessly all year long which has indeed carried over to our banks here at home. So when you have both oil and banks selling off the way that they have, it’s no wonder why there has been a global sell-off sending markets into correction territory.

As the global sell-off continues and as the chatter of doomsday gets louder and louder, I think it is important to remember that we have been in one of the strongest and longest bull markets of all time. Let’s not forget it is not only normal but quite healthy that stocks, bonds and commodities correct and balance out. It amazes me that when sell-offs occur that lead to corrections in the marketplace how the pundits come out of the woodwork and speak to how the world is coming to an end. My friends, what hasn’t been normal is for over six years how we have not had a market correction of over 10% that has stuck. Well here we are today and this is where we find ourselves.

Yes, equities can go lower and yes it can get more painful. But once valuations become attractive again and this is what market corrections provide, you better believe at some point in time buyers will resurface and take advantage of the what goes on sale. The markets are closed on Monday due to Presidents’ Day. Both Paula and I wish everyone a very safe and happy holiday 🙂

~George

 

It’s All About Greece…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

The Greece Crisis is at the forefront of the markets yet again. Greece closed its banks and stock market on Monday in an attempt to avoid on run on their financial institutions. The heightened state of Greece sent our markets into a tailspin on Monday, however the U.S. stock market did find it’s footing yesterday managing to eek out a small gain. For the month of June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) closed down 391.18 points at 17,691.51, the Nasdaq (chart) finished the month lower by 83.16 points at 4987.00, the S&P 500 (chart) -44.29 points at 2063.11 and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) was one of the only major averages that finished the month of June positive closing up 7.42 points on the month at 1253.95.

So what’s in store for the month of July you may ask? One word, Volatility! Since the realization that Greece is going to miss its $1.7 billion dollar debt payment it owes to the International Monetary Fund and that Greece may no longer be a part of the European Union, volatility slammed the global markets. The $VIX (chart) which trades on the Chicago Board Options Exchange is the Volatility Index. The $VIX indicates the market’s expectation of future volatility, 30 days to be exact, spiked as high as 41% since Monday. We have not seen this type of vol for months and I don’t expect it to let up anytime soon.

Although Greece continues to grab the headlines, there are other concerns that contagion can spread to other debt ridden EU countries such as Spain and Portugal. Even Puerto Rico has it’s own debt issues that are of increasing concern. I do expect that there will be a resolution of some sort to this latest crisis, but I also do believe volatility will stick around for a bit.

Another catalyst that could create additional volatility is the upcoming Q2 earnings reporting season. U.S. companies will begin to report their results after the 4th of July holiday and in earnest the week thereafter. So you can see why I believe volatility could be increasing over the next several weeks. As a trader, this is what you have been waiting on and if you are a long term investor, you have been through this before.

Both Paula and I wish everyone a very safe and Happy 4th of July Holiday 🙂

~George