It’s a broken record indeed! That is the continuing record breaking run on Wall Street. On Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (see chart here), the S&P 500 (see chart here), the Nasdaq Composite (see chart here) set new all time highs. Seemingly, there is no stopping this record setting run that the markets have been on, at least for now. The latest catalyst was news out of Washington that the U.S. and China are close to coming to a “Phase 1” agreement on a trade deal. As I eluded to in my November 15th blog, new record highs could come into play by year-end if we see a trade deal happen. The caveat here is the deal is being titled as a “Phase 1” agreement and there is much more to agree upon to finish the deal out. That said, this is a definite step in the right direction and the markets seem to agree. I do want to keep my enthusiasm in check because of the volatility that continues to come out of Washington on this subject. We have all seen over the past several months tweets and statements out of Washington that we are close to a deal with China to only then wake up the next day to get the opposite statement either out of Washington or China. Phase 1 is a great step, but I am looking forward to the complete deal getting done and most likely that will yield to the first quarter of 2020.
In the meantime, investors are continuing to enjoy record highs and there doesn’t seem too much ahead between now and year-end that will change the course. The technical shape of the bellwether indexes remain intact. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see chart below), the S&P 500 (chart) and the Nasdaq Composite (chart) are all trading below the 70 value level of the relative strength index (RSI). Also, each of these indexes are trading healthily above their 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages.
Paula and I wish everyone a very safe and happy holiday season.