Month: June 2013

Technically speaking…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

Stocks finished lower for the week as volatility continued to rise. For the week, the  Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) closed down 1.17%, the Nasdaq (chart) -1.32%, the S&P 500 (chart) -1.01% and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) closed the week lower by 0.63%. Is this bull market beginning to show signs of fatigue or is this just a typical pre-summer pullback? Let’s take a look at the technical picture of these key indices and see what’s going on there.

Market technicians use a multitude of indicators to discern potential support or resistance levels. My preference has always been to keep things as simple as possible when analyzing charts of stocks or indices. The two indicators I pay the closet attention to is the Relative Strength Index also know as the RSI and the moving averages. Out of dozens of technical indicators that are available, you may ask why do I prefer these particular indicators? The answer simply is that high profile market technicians,  computerized trading models and certain institutional investors utilize them.  Time and time again when I see that Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating an overbought or oversold condition, the majority of the time the asset or index reverts to the mean. Same rings true with the moving averages, whenever a stock or index bumps up against or comes down to its moving average, typically the stock or index finds support or resistance.

Let’s break this down in more detail. Pertaining to the (RSI), The RSI is designed to demonstrate whether or not an index or equity is overbought or oversold, depending on certain value levels. According to the RSI principle, the 70 value level or greater, is an overbought condition and the 30 value and below is an oversold condition. As of right now the aforementioned indices are hovering around the 50 value level which is not indicating an extreme condition either way. Looking at the moving averages these indices remain above their 50-day moving average and as you can see with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) and S&P 500 (chart), these indexes have bounced off their 50-day moving averages/support lines three times over the past week or so which clearly demonstrates the potential of the power and precision of this particular technical indicator.

So technically speaking, I see nothing that would indicate an extreme condition of these indexes and as long as their are no major surprises out of the FOMC meeting next week, we should see smooth sailing heading into the summer. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

Is risk back off?

Posted on by George Mahfouz

On the last trading day of May, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) sold off by 208.96 points, the Nasdaq (chart) -35.38, the S&P 500 (chart) -23.67 and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) finished the day lower by 10.28 points. Is this a possible prelude for the month of June? After the six-month+ run that stocks have been on, one has to wonder if these markets are poised to correct?

As I wrote in mid-May, I expected volatility to begin to increase, and sure enough the VIX (chart) also known as the fear gauge spiked 27.5% over the past two weeks. Ever since the Fed began mapping out an exit strategy, the market chatter has steadily increased as to how stocks and bonds would react. Furthermore, since its May policy meeting, the Fed has had a difficult time communicating its position as to how it will move forward. I know that some type of jaw boning needs to occur in order to prepare the markets for the beginning of monetary easing. However, a policy statement at the beginning of May indicated that the Fed’s next move could either be up or down? Confusing isn’t it? So it’s no wonder some sort of fear has begun to creep into these markets.

That said, this has become such an unprecedented market environment, I don’t know what to think right now. Isn’t the job market, corporate earnings, and top-line growth supposed to drive stocks? What I and many on the street are concerned with is the day the Fed decides to begin its wind down, how will equities react? Next week I will be paying close attention to the plethora of economic reports that will be issued which includes the PMI and ISM manufacturing indexes, the Beige Book and of course the all important Jobs report which will be issued on Friday before the market open, just to name a few. If the economy can begin to demonstrate meaningful strength, then any type of pullback or correction will most likely be met with wide support. However, if economic numbers stay weak, then we could very well be in for a lot more volatility this summer. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George