Stocks continue to set records and now on a daily basis! As I am writing this blog the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) is now trading north of 20440, the S&P 500 (chart) is trading well above 2300, the Nasdaq (chart) is trading above 5750 and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) set an all time high yesterday at 1398! I continue to be amazed on how resilient the markets have been and continue to be. Earlier this month it appeared that the Trump rally stalled out and it was becoming a wait and see environment. Well now the Trump rally has seemingly reignited. Trump last week announced he has major news forthcoming on his tax plan and that was apparently the cue for the markets to rally yet again. However, one has to ask how many more tweets, news conferences or headlines can take the markets higher? Without question the above key indices are becoming overbought and especially pertaining to the relative strength index also know as the RSI. Let’s take a look.
Currently the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s RSI (chart) is trading at a 73, the S&P 500 (chart) RSI is also currently at 73, the Nasdaq (chart) is even higher at 77. The only laggard pertaining to the relative strength index and being in an “overbought” condition is small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) in which its RSI is currently at the 60 value level. Remember the relative strength index is a widely utilized technical indicator that certain institutional traders include in their models along with a variety of algorithm trading platforms. The RSI is a momentum indicator that tracks the size of gains and losses over a given period of time with the 70 value level and above as overbought and the 30 value level and below as oversold. One of the concerns certain market technicians have is that these all time highs and overbought conditions have been occurring on relatively light volume. Without trying to call a top here, I suspect that the aforementioned indices and some of the overbought stocks within these indexes are due for a pullback.
Good luck to all and Paula and I wish everyone a Happy Valentine’s Day 🙂