Finally Congress Gets a Deal Done!

After 16 days of a partial government shutdown, Congress finally came to terms to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling. Talk about waiting until the last minute! Needless to say, stocks over the past couple of weeks have experienced an increase in volatility with triple digit gains and losses during the shutdown. Despite the turmoil in Washington, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) on Wednesday closed up over 200 points, the Nasdaq (chart) managed to close at a 13 year high, the S&P 500 (chart) is nearing its all time high and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) finished the trading day at an all time record. Now the street can focus on Q3 earnings reporting season and so far, not so good.

After the close yesterday, bellwether International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) shocked the street by missing revenues by almost $1 billion dollars and is down nearly seven percent in pre-market trading. Also after the close yesterday, Ebay (NasdaqGS: EBAY) reported in-line revenues, however guided lower for the upcoming holiday season. With Q3 earnings reporting season kicking into to high gear, I am questioning whether or not this will become the trend for the quarter? Most analysts do not expect this to be a robust quarter for corporate America, so now the question becomes does the imminent pullback in stocks become a buying opportunity before year end? Quite frankly with the headline risk out of Washington seemingly over for now, I beleive that the trend of pullbacks being bought will continue between now and year-end. I will look at key technical support levels for possible entries, and on the S&P 500 (chart) the 1680 zone appears to be the first level of support, which also happens to be its 50-day moving average, followed by the 1620 area. What gives me this vote of confidence of a continuing bull market into year-end is not necessarily how corporate earnings will fair, but the fact that the Federal Reserve continues to promise that it will do whatever it takes to support the economy, hence the bull market should continue. That said, when the Federal Reserve begins to taper, this will be the time that corporate America will truly need demonstrate top-line growth. In closing, no matter how your portfolio is positioned, it is usually the best practice to implement some type of protective stop initiative and of course always consult with a certified financial professional(s) while considering any investment strategy. Good luck to all. 🙂

~George

 

Despite a Partial Government Shutdown, Stocks Rally…

No matter what has been thrown at this bull market over the past few years, nothing seemingly can slow it down. After the key indices finished the month of September with unlikely gains, stocks continued their upward trajectory today even though Congress couldn’t agree on a short term budget deal to keep our government fully operating.

For the first day of October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finished up 62.03 points, the Nasdaq (chart) +46.50 points, the S&P 500 (chart) +13.45 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) closed the day up 13.64 points. Pundits are speculating that with the government in a partial shutdown, Congress will now have to address the debt ceiling and budget at the same time which a likely compromise will come forward on both issues, hence, bullish for stocks. Not sure if I fully agree with that thesis. Furthermore, the bulls make yet another case that by having this budget and possible debt ceiling impasse, this will keep the Federal Reserve in full accommodative policy mode. Now this in my opinion would be a more bullish thesis. However, lets not forget we have now entered into the fourth and final quarter of the year and third quarter earnings reporting season is on its way.

Needless to say, the markets have a ton to digest over the coming weeks including Q3 earnings reporting season and I am expecting volatility to continue to increase. From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq (chart) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) stunningly hit new 52-week highs today and continue to outperform the Dow Jones Industrials (chart) and the S&P 500 (chart). The Dow and S&P did bounce off of key support levels yesterday and have resumed their uptrends, at least for now. In addition, both the tech-heavy Nasdaq (chart) and small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) are once again approaching overbought territory heading right into earnings reporting season, which could be of interest to the bear camp.

As volatility increases, one strategy that can potentially bode well is to sell option premium on select indexes or stocks in order to capitalize on the increased vol. This strategy is not for the novice and one should consult with a certified financial consultant before implementing any strategy, especially options strategies. But for the more advanced investor or trader, this type of environment is almost perfect to participate in a “selling option premium” program. Option premium is essentially income generated by an investor who sells premium to another party and hopes to keep the entire premium without having the option exercised. Let’s look at one example of a “selling premium, covered call strategy”. Let’s assume you own 1000 shares of Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB) at $50 per share. You can choose to “sell” a.k.a.”write” a covered call option on the Facebook shares you own. If you take the monthly October $52.50 calls that are currently trading for $1.20 and sell/write them against your position, you would take in $1,200.00 less transactions costs. This is the premium you would receive for writing/selling this covered call. If Facebook closes below $52.50 on expiration day you keep the entire premium as well as your 1000 shares. If Facebook closes above $52.50 on expiration day you still keep the entire premium earned, however, your 1000 shares of Facebook would be called away at $52.50 because you sold your rights to the stock you own to another party for $52.50. If this is the case, you would be a not only be benefiting from the options premium income, but also a stock appreciation outcome for in this example the initial cost basis for the Facebook position is $50.00 per share. So you would gain an additional $2.50 per share in profit. Please note that a covered call strategy is typically a bullish strategy and again this is just one example of how “selling options premium” can work. In closing, this is not a recommendation just an illustration on how an investor or trader can potentially benefit with option premiums. Please remember it’s always best to consult with a certified financial planner(s) before implementing any investment strategy.

Good luck to all 🙂

~George