Risks Abound!

As we enter into Q1 earnings reporting season there are risks abound! Whether it’s the brewing trade war with China, rising interest rates here at home or geopolitical tensions in the middle east, the risk profile of this market has certainly increased in recent weeks. Money center banks such as JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) kicked off earnings reporting season and all reported solid earnings numbers only to see their stocks falter on Friday. So we could be setting up for a better than expected earnings reporting season and the markets won’t care due to the aformentioned risks that are present. We will certainly find out this upcoming week as hundreds of companies are set to report their quarterly results. We kick off the week with earnings from Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Charles Schwab Corp (NYSE: SCHW), Netflix (NasdaqGS: NFLX) followed by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Intuitive Surgical (NasdaqGS: ISRG), United Continental Holdings (NYSE: UAL), United Healthgroup (NYSE: UNH), Abbot Labs (NYSE: ABT), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), United Rentals (NYSE: URI), Etrade Financial Corp. (NasdaqGS: ETFC), General Electric (NYSE: GE) Honeywell International (NYSE: HON), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) and Transunion (NYSE: TRU) just to name a few.

Let’s take a gander at the technical shape of the markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see chart below) has bounced off of its 200-day moving average multiple times over the past couple of weeks and is now hovering at its 20-day, the same can be said for the S&P 500 (chart), the Nasdaq Composite (chart) is right on its 20-day and 100-day moving averages as is the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart). So all of the key indices are at or slightly above key support levels and just maybe between earnings reporting season and key support levels in play, stocks can withstand the risks that are currently present. Good luck to all 🙂

~George

Dow Jones - George Mahfouz Jr

 

Tech Stocks Under Fire!

Despite a modest rebound on Friday tech stocks remain under fire. From Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB) to Tesla (NasdaqGS: TSLA) and now even Amazon (NasdaqGS: AMZN) are all under pressure for a variety of reasons. This is spilling over into the overall tech sector (see chart below) and even into the overall marketplace. Facebook is facing significant scrutiny regarding user privacy while Tesla continues to trip up with deliveries and debt issues and now even Amazon is under pressure due to President Trump’s direct attack on the online retailer’s sales tax structure. This was enough to send the major averages down to close out the quarter at or in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finished Q1at 24103, the S&P 500 (chart) closed the quarter at 2640, the Nasdaq Composite (chart) closed at 7063 and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) finished the first quarter of the year at 1529.

What was also obvious in Q1 was how volatility came back to life. For years the market was in a lullaby state melting up and setting record after record. Well the first quarter has swiftly reminded us on how markets can and should behave. Investors that placed money into mutual funds or passive funds over the past several years made out like a bandit with not a worry in the world. Abnormal stock market gains were in vogue especially after the election. Now with rising interest rates, the Federal Reserve reducing its debt load and the daily drama out of Washington DC, I think it is safe to say the melt up mode and daily records being set are in the rear view mirror. That said, market corrections are very normal and healthy and so is volatility at least for traders that is 🙂

Looking ahead and with earnings reporting season right around the corner, let’s see how corporate America fared in the first quarter of the year. This could be the catalyst that calms things down a bit but in the same breath should there be any slippage in earnings growth, we could be in for more even more volatility. Good luck to all 🙂

~George

Nasdaq - george mahfouz jr