A First Half To Forget…

Needless to say, the first half of the year needs to be forgotten. Stocks took it on the chin as the major averages have lost meaningful ground so far in 2022. Year to date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (see chart here) is down over 14%, the S&P 500 (see chart here) is off by almost 20%, the Nasdaq Composite (see chart here) is down almost 30% and the small-cap Russell 2000 (see chart here) year to date is down 23%. As mentioned above, a first half to forget.

As I spoke to in my last blog, I believe we are in a “new norm” pertaining to the stock market. For years stocks have traded at a premium due to the accommodative policies implemented by the Federal Reserve banks from around the globe. Fast forward to today and we are now in a much different environment. Fed banks across the globe are now raising rates to stem off inflationary pressures. I think this policy shift is long overdue and actually very healthy for the stock market. Sure the pain is real from this correction and current bear market, but now that rates are starting to normalize, keyword “starting”, investors can have more confidence in how to gauge and measure value in stocks. Before, it was virtually impossible to properly analyze stocks  due to the the accommodative fed policies which included years of zero percent interest rates and government stimulus programs. This backdrop added higher multiples to most asset classes which simply was not sustainable. Now that we are heading back to an even playing field, we can all have more confidence that stocks will begin to trade at their true value and if they are not trading at their real value, we can now identify more accurately undervalued or overvalued stocks and act accordingly.

Wishing everyone a very safe and Happy 4th of July weekend!

~George

First Half Of 2018 In The Books…

The first half of 2018 is in the books and where in the world did that go? Year to date the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) is off about one percent, the S&P 500 (see chart below) is up a couple of percentage points but the Nasdaq Composite (chart) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) are way outperforming the other benchmark indexes closing the first half of the year up almost 10% each.

Let’s take a look how the second half of the year is shaping up. We start off the second half of the year with of course the fourth of July holiday which this year happens to be in the middle of the week. I don’t expect too much market action this upcoming week especially with a shortened trading session on Tuesday followed by the markets closing on Wednesday in recognition of the 4th of July. There could be some positioning going on both Thursday and Friday after the holiday. but all in all I am expecting lighter volume throughout the week with not too much volatility. Now the following week and the second half of the year is a whole different story. Q2 earnings reporting season will begin in earnest the week of July 9th and this my friends will be the true beginning of the second half of the trading year. I expect volatility to kick in once again as corporate America unveils their most recent quarterly results. Furthermore, we will be getting ever closer to the midterm elections that promises to be filled with about as much drama and rhetoric one can imagine. Also, historically stocks have witnessed meaningful corrections at some point during the year leading up to the midterms and I do not expect this year to be any different. I also expect corporate America to report impressive growth to their top and bottom lines; however, these results may already be priced in.

Technically speaking the aforementioned indexes all remain above their respective moving averages with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) hovering right around its 200-day. Paula and I wish everyone a very safe and Happy 4th of July 🙂

~George

S&P 500 - Paula Mahfouz