The 200-Day Moving Average Holds!

The 200-day moving average held its ground despite the constant tape bombs and tweets that continues to come out of Washington. It is no secret that stocks have been on a wild ride over the past few weeks from making all-time highs to rip roaring selloffs. The continuation of tariff threats out of Washington has been a huge catalyst for the increase in volatility in stocks. That said, with all of the madness that is swirling around the Dow Jones Industrial Average (see chart here), the S&P 500 (see chart here) and the Nasdaq Composite (see chart here) have all managed to stay above their respective 200-day moving averages. This key technical support line has held true to form during these market selloffs. The small-cap Russell 2000 (see chart here) has not been as fortunate and could not hold its 200-day.

So in addition to the Washington D.C. threats of additional tariffs, the markets also had to deal with the dreaded 10-year and 2-year yield curve inverting. Whenever longer term interest rates fall below shorter term interest rates in the bond market that historically is a signal that a recession might be looming. Now there is a meaningful lag here whenever we see the yield curve inverting, so as long as the curve flattens out and returns to a normalized dynamic, we should escape the threat. However, if the yield curve remains inverted for an extended period of time then we could be in for something else.

Let’s get back to the technical shape of the markets. As mentioned, three of the four major averages held above their respective 200-day moving average support line which is a good thing technically. What also helped is during these meaningful selloffs is that the markets did go into oversold territory and technically bounced. Let’s see how the next couple of weeks shape up as we wind down the dog days of summer.

Good luck to all 🙂

~George

As Expected, The Fed Raises Rates…

To no surprise, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 1/4 point today citing stronger economic growth and a pick-up in inflation. A stronger job market also played a role in the decision of the Fed. What wasn’t quite expected was the language of an additional anticipated rate hike from the projected two hikes in 2017 to now three. This might of caused the slight sell-off yesterday in the markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) falling 118.68 points, the S&P 500 (chart) was lower 18.44 points, the Nasdaq (chart) fell 27.15 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) retraced by 17.51 points.

With all things considered, this pullback was long overdue. In fact, I am surprised that the markets held up like they did yesterday. Especially considering the rip roaring rally most equities have enjoyed since the presidential election. Markets have been on fire with the Dow Jones Industrials (chart) gaining almost 1,600 points, the S&P 500 (chart) ripping 125 points, the Nasdaq (chart) catapulting about 300 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) up a staggering 170 points. What a breathtaking rally in such a short period of time.

So what can we expect between now and year end? Let’s think about this for a minute. If you are an institutional investor, fund manager, hedge fund or the like would you be taking profits into year end? Or would you wait until we get into the new year knowing that capital gains taxes and corporate taxes are coming down? I think it is fair to say the latter would make the most sense. Add into the mix the rotation that continues out of the bond market and into equities in which certain pundits believe we are in the fourth or fifth inning of that rotation, one has to ascertain that this bull market has more room to run.

Whatever the case I think pullbacks will be bought as momentum continues into year-end. Paula and I wish everyone the happiest and healthiest holiday season 🙂

~George