Just like August, September produces unlikely gains…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

Although stocks were mostly lower on the week, the month of September produced rare gains for the benchmark indexes. For the month of September, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) gained 2.65%, the Nasdaq (chart) +1.61%, the S&P 500 (chart) +2.42% and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) closed the month up 2.12%. This capped a very impressive third quarter for equities with all of these key indices advancing sharply higher.

So now the encore! What promises to be an event driven final stretch of the year, investors can look forward to Q3 earnings reporting season in October and of course the Presidential and congressional elections in November. Not to mention the ongoing saga in Europe, the seemingly everlasting middle east crisis, and whether or not our country will face the “fiscal cliff” outcome which could spin our economy into a recession?

So as you can see stocks and bonds are certainly exposed to an enormous amount of uncertainty in the final quarter of the year. Typically when markets are in such a quandary, much higher volatility usually ensues. In any market environment and  especially the one we are heading into, it is always best to use protective stops and or protection in the form of puts if you have a long portfolio. Furthermore, it is always a good idea to consult with a professional investment advisor before implementing any type of strategy. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

A bull breather…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

After such a torrid bull run this summer and with most major averages posting double digit gains, stocks finished lower this week, albeit modestly. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) closed down 0.10%, the Nasdaq (chart) -0.13%, the S&P 500 (chart) -0.13% and the Russell 2000 (chart) finished the week off 1.06%. This minor pullback is nothing compared to the rare and impressive September monthly gains with all of the above key indices advancing well over 3% so far this month.

As equities continue to remain strong after the Fed announced their latest stimulus package last week, I continue to monitor the underlying technicals of the markets and from what I see, the coast continues to remain clear. The one exception to how the big four is looking technically is that these key averages are at or near the 70 value level on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).  The RSI is a technical analysis indicator which measures gain and losses over a given period of time to identify whether or not stocks or indexes are currently oversold or in this case overbought.

That said, with central banks from around the world ready to flood the markets and economies with liquitidy if needed, I am now of the belief that stocks and certain commodities should remain overbought for the foreseeable future with the occasional pullbacks along the way. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George  

Stocks soar, the Fed pulls out all the stops!

Posted on by George Mahfouz

I know we keep talking about the Federal Reserve, but on Thursday Ben Bernanke announced the mother of all stimulus programs. The new stimulus package includes $4o billion a month to be injected into the economy  and a promise that it won’t stop until the unemployment picture dramatically turns around. Never before has a central bank made such a large extended commitment and then tie it to the jobs market.

On the heels of this announcement, stocks soared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finishing the week up 2.15% and is now up year to date 11.26%. The Nasdaq (chart) closed the week up 1.52% and year to date is up a staggering 22.22%. The S&P 500 (chart) on the week marched 1.94% higher and so far this year is up 16.55%,  and last but not least, the Russell 2000 (chart) small-cap index closed up 2.66% and is tracking a year to date gain of 16.71%

Yes I triple confirmed the above statistics and there are no typos. Now the multi-million dollar question is  “is this bull market out of breath?” It’s only natural to think that this tape is overdone and is well overdue due for a healthy 5% or even 10% pullback? This may especially ring true with the most recent middle east tensions, the upcoming third quarter earnings reporting season and of course the U.S. presidential elections all on the horizon. That said, with the Federal Reserves unprecedented commitment to truly do whatever it takes to get this economy and now the unemployment picture completely turned around, I would think that any pullbacks would provide excellent entry points. Whatever you choose to do, make sure to always consult with a professional investment advisor.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

Nasdaq at 12 year highs, up over 20% year to date…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

Now who said we are in the dog days of summer? Stocks once again took off this week after the European Central Bank promised to buy the debt of struggling countries in the eurozone. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) closed up 1.65%, the S&P 500 (chart) +2.23%, the Russell 2000 (chart) +3.72% and the tech heavy Nasdaq (chart) closed the week at fresh 12 year highs finishing up 2.26%. What a run this has been so far this year with staggering double digit gains for most of the major averages. Congratulations to all of the bulls out there!

The million dollar question now is; “is it time for some profit taking?” The short answer, yes! Always make sure to consult with your professional financial advisor when considering taking action, but I would think he or she would agree that it would be a good idea to take some off the table. The bulls case is that as long as the governments from around the world continue to expand their balance sheets, the markets should continue to go higher. All you have to do is look at the performance of the key indices so far this year and it’s easy to see the power of the central banks. The bears case is stocks are trading at multiples not seen in years and that earnings estimates are way too high and need to come down. No matter what the case is, and in my humble opinion, taking some profits after such an unprecedented run would be the responsible thing to do. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

Rare August gains for key indices…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

The four most followed indexes produced unlikely gains for the month of August. Typically the dog days of summer is seasonally weak for equities, but not this year. For the month of August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) closed up 0.63%, the Nasdaq (chart) +4.34%, the S&P 500 (chart) +1.98% and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) finished the month up 3.2%.

Stocks once again benefited by the Fed promising to take further steps to help boost the economy if needed. Speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Ben Bernanke reiterated his concern over the state of the economy and that the central bank is prepared to act if warranted. So how will this mantra play out for the month of September?

September is typically one of the weakest months of the year for equities, however, could this month buck the trend just like August did? We should find out in short order with the release of the unemployment report next Friday. Talk about market and political implications! If the job market continues to deteriorate, you better believe this will become even more of a focal point as the election approaches. A further decay in the unemployment picture should also give the fed confirmation to further stimulate the economy. If this scenario plays out, one could surmise that the markets would continue to lift and that Mitt and Ann Romney may be soon moving to Pennsylvania Avenue.

I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Labor Day weekend 🙂

~George

Stocks lower on the week…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

Despite a rally on Friday, the benchmark indexes finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) fell 0.88%, the Nasdaq (chart) -0.22%, the S&P 500 (chart) -0.50% and the Russell 2000 (chart) -1.31%. The market action this week broke a six week stretch of gains.

What helped fuel the market on Friday was Ben Bernanke’s comment in a letter that the Fed has more room to add yet even more stimulus if the economy needs it. Is it me or are we all a little exhausted by the same regurgitation of the Fed coming to the rescue of the economy and the markets? What’s clear is investors are are seemingly and exclusively looking to invest in stocks and bonds based on what the central banks will or will not do. To me this platform has now become overkill and I am going to be very cautious on the long side of things going forward. That said, if you have been short the market based on economic and corporate fundamentals, theoretically you have been on the right side of the trade, however, chances are your short thesis has hurt your portfolio because of the accommodative banking policies from around the world.

In my humble opinion this cannot go on forever and I certainly do not want to be long the market when the policymakers say “that’s enough!” Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

Let’s talk technicals…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

As certain stocks and markets continue to unexpectedly plow to new 52 week highs, I think it’s time to look at the technical aspect of the indexes. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finished up 0.51%, the Nasdaq (chart) +1.84%, the S&P 500 (chart) +0.87% and the Russell 2000 (chart) +2.29%. I do not remember a time when equities have behaved this well in the month of August, albeit on very low volume.

Now to the technicals. I typically refer to two of the more popular technical indicators that certain market technicians, program trading models and even institutional investors utilize, and they are, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Averages technical indicators. The RSI is designed to demonstrate whether or not an index or equity is overbought or oversold, depending on certain value levels. According to the RSI principle, the 70 value level or greater, is an overbought condition and the 30 value and below is an oversold condition. Pertaining to the moving averages, the 50-day and the more closely monitored 200-day moving average, are the key markers that market technicians and program trading models look for and potentially act on.

In looking at the four major averages, they are all currently trading considerably above their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, both the Nasdaq (chart) and the S&P 500 (chart) is on the cusp of breaking through the 70 value level on the RSI. Furthermore, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) and the Russell 2000 (chart) are not too far behind trading around the 65 value level. This is an indication that the markets are potentially becoming overbought and are due for some type of pullback. Please keep in mind that stocks can remain overbought or oversold for extended periods of time. That said, when the RSI on a given equity or index begins to trade at or above this key level, a reversal of some sort typically occurs. Now there are many other factors and technical indicators to refer to when analyzing market conditions, but my preference is to keep it simple when looking at the technicals, and the RSI and moving averages indicators do it for me. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

 

What a difference a year makes…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

Last year at this time stocks were in a free-fall. At one point in August of 2011, the top four indicies were all down well over 10% on the month. Fast forward to this year and so far in August the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) is up 1.53%, the Nasdaq (chart) +2.77%, the S&P 500 (chart) +1.92% and the Russell 2000 (chart) +1.85%. It is very unusual for the markets to be posting gains in the dog days of summer. This is especially true when earnings reporting season has been less than stellar. Add into the mix a continuing flow of disappointing economic reports from around the world, and one would think we would be down 10% on the month!

So what gives? Call it an election year, call it the global flow of liquidity, call it what you want, but I am going to refer to the old adage on Wall street and that is “you can’t fight the tape!” This means when markets are trending lower or higher in this case, it’s best to go with the flow rather than try to pick the top to sell or sell short. However, it doesn’t make a lot of sense that we are at multi-month highs considering the global-macro picture. One thing is for sure, and that is stocks or indexes can remain overbought for extended periods of time regardless of the circumstances. Next week we will take a look at how the technicals are playing out in the markets to see if there is anything from a technical perspective that we should be paying attention to. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

What a day for the bulls!

Posted on by George Mahfouz

Stocks took off right out of the gate this morning thanks in part to a better than expected payroll number. Private sector hiring had its best showing in five months creating 163,000 new jobs compared to the 100,000 number most economists anticipated. This was enough to send the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) up 217.29 points, the Nasdaq (chart) +58.13, the S&P 500 (chart) +25.99 and the Russell 2000 (chart) +19.88. After trading the majority of the week in the red, three of these four key indices closed slightly up on the week, with the sole exception being the Russell 2000 (chart).

One of the concerns I have about the July labor report is that even though the private sector hired more workers than anticipated, this number is still way below the 250,000 monthly jobs necessary to have a meaningful impact on the unemployment picture. I have also watched a deterioration of consumer confidence as of late along with sluggish retail sales numbers. This does not bode well for the overall economy because the consumer plays a significant role in how our economy performs.

Now to the markets. If you are an investor, or a trader for that matter, you might be scratching your head and asking, “how could equities be at multi-month highs when we have anemic job growth and weakening consumer confidence?” The answer is very simple and that is – the Fed. Policymakers here and abroad have made it abundantly clear, if the markets and/or the economy needs us, we will accommodate! This mantra and position has helped fuel stocks all year long. Unless the central banks change their tune, a floor will continue to be placed underneath this marketplace.

Personally, it is difficult for me to have the confidence in going long or short equities in this environment. On one hand, you have a struggling economy and lagging corporate earnings. On the other hand, you have central banks from around the globe having a “whatever it takes” attitude while injecting a steady flow of cheap money into the system. That said, there are trading opportunities on both sides of the fence and seemingly technical analysis may become more influential on stocks or indexes then anything else right now. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

Whatever it takes…

Posted on by George Mahfouz

That was the message sent mid-week by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. That statement alone was enough to spike the markets into a breathtaking three-day rally pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) above the 13,000 mark for the first time in since early May. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finished up almost 2%, the Nasdaq (chart) +1.12%, the S&P 500 (chart) +1.71% and the Russell 2000 (chart) +0.56%.

As a trader or investor it has become somewhat challenging to form a thesis on the markets. Despite weakening economic data and tepid corporate earnings, equities continue to outperform the data. Logically, one could surmise based on the weak data and somber outlook, a short thesis could be developed and implemented. However, when you have the central banks from around the world ready to provide consistent stimulus measures, and have a “whatever it takes attitude”, equities benefit.

I am not sure how much longer these stimulus resolutions will have a positive effect on stocks, however, if you try to short this market in this environment, make sure you have protective stops in on all of your positions. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George