Q1 Ends With A Bang!

Stocks closed out the first quarter of the year down impressively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) closed down 200.19 points, the Nasdaq (chart) -46.55, the S&P 500 (chart) -18.35 and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) finished the day down 5.03 points. The Dow Jones Industrials (chart) also finished the quarter slightly in the red, while the other aforementioned indices eked out modest gains.

Looking ahead to Q2, I suspect that we will be in for a very volatile and choppy market. As the first quarter was winding down we were experiencing triple digit swings on the Dow, as well as spikes in volatility across the board. Now I am beginning to think we will even see more volatility come into the market. April historically is a strong month for stocks, but we find ourselves entering into Q1 earnings reporting season in which I think corporate America may see widespread earnings declines. This is due in large part to how strong the U.S. dollar (chart) has been and how this will affect a wide array of multi-national companies who generate meaningful revenues overseas. A strong dollar does not bode well for U.S. companies with this type of earnings profile. Of course not all U.S. companies rely on overseas revenue and I would also think that certain technology and healthcare companies will do just fine.

The one sector I will be paying the closest attention to this upcoming earnings reporting season is the energy sector. Oil (chart) has been taken out to the woodshed since last fall as well as the majority of oil related stocks. So with the price of oil plunging as it has, earnings out of this sector should be horrific. However, these are the times when rare opportunities can and do present themselves. I will look for “washout” moments with certain oil related stocks after they report their earnings to step in and start building positions. I would expect most of the bad news in this sector is about to be released, hence, a set-up for the right buying opportunity. Of course, I will be looking for companies with pristine balances sheets, with minimal to no debt and have those companies at the top of my list. That said, before you make any investments in any sectors, make sure that you consult with a trusted and certified financial advisor(s) to understand the risks associated with stocks, commodities and the like. Also note, this is a holiday shortened trading week due to Good Friday and both Paula and I wish everyone a very safe and happy holiday weekend 🙂

~George

Q1 Earnings Reporting Season Saves The Day, So Far…

Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart), the Nasdaq (chart), the S&P 500 (chart) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) all went into a tailspin closing lower by 2.4%, 3.1%, 2.6% and 3.6% respectively. Fast forward to this week as earnings reporting season shifted in to high gear and we have a different story. For this holiday shortened week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finished up 2.38%, the Nasdaq (chart) closed up 2.395%, the S&P 500 (chart) gained 2.7% and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) closed the week up 2.38%.

So why the reversal? Simply put and for the most part, corporate earnings are coming in better than expected. At the beginning of the week Citigroup (NYSE: C) posted better than expected results on net income of $3.94 billion up from $3.81 billion in Q1 2013. This was after Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) posted a sharp rise in its net income in comparison to last year’s quarterly results. Also this week, Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) reported a net income of $4.4 billion an almost 8% increase over the same period last year. The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) reported their Q1 earnings booking 44 cents share which is what the street expected as global sales volume rose 2%. Furthermore, Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) reported 38 cents a share in earnings which came in 1 cent above what analysts expected, this was enough to send Intel to fresh 52-week highs.  Yet another impressive earnings report came out of flash based data storage firm SanDisk (NasdaqGS: SNDK) which surprised the street and reported record Q1 results of $1.44 per share leapfrogging street estimates of $1.25 per share. This was enough to send the shares of the company up over 7% in today’s trading session.

As previously mentioned, earnings reporting season kicked into high gear this week and next week we go into overdrive. At the beginning of this upcoming week, we will here from Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), Wynn Resorts (NasdaqGS: WYNN), AK Steel (NYSE: AKS), Amgen (NasdaqGS: AMGN), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Cree Inc. (NasdaqGS: CREE), Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), Gilead Sciences (NYSE: GILD), Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR), Intuitive Surgical (NasdaqGS: ISRG) and United Technologies Corp (NYSE: UTX). Mid-week earnings will come out of tech behemoth Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL), Biogen Idec (NasdaqGS: BIIB), Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), F5 Networks (NasdaqGS: FFIV), Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB) and Qualcomm (NasdaqGS: QCOM). Closing out the week we will hear from 3M Company (NYSE: MMM), Amazon (NasdaqGS: AMZN), American Airlines (NYSE: AAL), Chinese search engine Baudi (NasdaqGS: BIDU), Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG), Celgene Corp (NasdaqGS: CELG), Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), General Motors (NYSE: GM), KLA-Tencor (NasdaqGS: KLAC), Microsoft (NasdaqGS: MSFT), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F). Of course there are hundreds of others reporting their earnings next week so we will see if the market continues to rebound from its mini sell-off earlier in the month. Good luck to all.

The markets will be closed tomorrow in recognition of Good Friday and both Paula and I wish everyone a very safe and healthy holiday weekend 🙂

~George