Are The Indexes Out Of Balance?

With how hot tech stocks have been lately, one has to ask are the key indexes out of balance? Let’s take a look. It is no secret tech stocks have been on fire, the Nasdaq Composite (see chart here) has been setting records weekly. Stocks like Tesla, Apple and Amazon continue to set all time highs. Price to earnings ratios aka the P/E ratio are also expanding to levels not seen since the tech bubble of the early 2000’s. I am not suggesting that tech as a whole is in a bubble, but there can be an argument that certain tech stocks are. I am not singling out Tesla at all, but what I am highlighting is the company’s eye-popping 1000 + P/E ratio. The price to earnings ratio is a metric for valuing a company that measures its current share price to its earnings per share. For example the S&P 500 typically trades in the 15-20 P/E range. Yes, a 15 to 20 P/E multiple is the historic price to earnings multiple that the S&P 500 trades at. So when you look at Tesla and see that this company’s P/E ratio is currently over 1000, it does bring pause and perspective into the mix.

Back to the indexes that appear to be out of balance. As the S&P 500 (see chart here) and the Nasdaq Composite (see chart below) continue to set records, the majority of stocks have not returned to their pre COVID highs and still remain down on the year. This to me is something to pay attention to. Sure, some tech stocks deserve their current valuations due to how they are growing and benefiting from the widespread lockdowns. Tech stocks and the technologies they provide are serving businesses and consumers alike in a way no one would of thought of before the pandemic took hold of our country. However, even stocks like Apple have high seen quite the expansion of its P/E multiple which is currently trading at 39. Bottom line for me, as we are setting records each week, I would prefer to see a broader base rally to ensure that we are not out of balance with each and every record that is being set.

Good luck to all ūüôā

~George

Are The Indexes Out Of Balance? - Paula Mahfouz

 

 

Not Even The Dog Days Of Summer Can Slow Down This Bull!

Stocks once again defied logic setting records in the month of August, which is typically a soft month for equities. For the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finished up 3.2%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq (chart) closed the month up 4.8%, the S&P 500 (chart) gained 3.8% and the small-cap Russell 2000¬†(chart) closed the month up 4.85%. Now granted these gains came on relatively low volume, but nonetheless a very impressive performance considering the macro environment we are in especially with the geopolitical concerns in the middle-east and Ukraine. I suppose the U.S. economic numbers that have come out recently is part of the reason why stocks continue to march north. Last Thursday the Commerce Department revised the second quarter U.S.¬†gross domestic product (G.D.P.) number to 4.2% which is quite a healthy expansion of our economy and what’s more, the sources of growth were¬†broad based.

Looking ahead to this month, when¬†traders and investors come back from their summer vacations, they will see¬†all time highs for the S&P 500 (chart), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) and don’t look now, even the Nasdaq (chart) is slowly approaching the 5000 mark, a mark that has not been seen since the tech-bubble of 2000. If you have been bearish or short this market, I do not know what to say other than I feel your pain. We have not had a 10% correction in equities in years now and just the slightest of pullbacks have been met with incessant support. I do not know what is going to break this trend and you know what they say, “the trend is your friend”. Enough of that, seriously, I too have been expecting at least a 5-10% correction, which if you are bullish, you should welcome it. Not only would this be healthy for the markets, in my view it’s getting to the point to where¬†it’s almost required. I am beginning to become a little¬†concerned that should a “black-swan” event occur, and history says “they happen when you least expect it” we could see such a sharp correction, that¬†could trigger margin selling, which would lead¬†to more selling pressure etc., we have all seen this movie before. I am not saying that this will take place, but if it does, and we if don’t have healthy corrections along the way, which we haven’t, this could magnify matters and we would be having a much different discussion.

With all that said, I will continue to monitor the economic numbers this month as well as the technical make-up of the aforementioned indices. Technically speaking, we are¬†now approaching overbought territory according to the relative strength index (RSI). Paula and I wish everyone a very safe and Happy Labor Day ūüôā

~George