Flat week…

Despite Thursday’s 250 point Dow drubbing, the key indices closed mixed on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) finished the week down 126.39 points, the Nasdaq (chart) finished up 19.62, the S&P 500 (chart) closed lower by 7.82 points and the Russell 2000 (chart) closed the week out gaining 3.84 points. Equities digested a lot of news this week including the Federal Reserve indicating they are ready to step in should the economy continue to falter. However, certain traders were disappointed the Fed did not provide another round of quantitative easing, hence a significant sell-off ensued on Thursday.

Personally, I think the markets need to quit relying so much on central bank stimulus and begin to focus on corporate earnings, which have been overall quite impressive. We are entering the last trading week of the second quarter which could prompt end of quarter window dressing. Window dressing is a strategy used by certain mutual funds and institutions near the end of the quarter to improve the appearance of their fund(s), this could bode well for the markets. Another potential positive for equities is Q2 earnings reporting season which begins in July. In my opinion, this is a key catalyst in whether or not stocks will stabilize over the summer and hopefully de-emphasize what the central banks may or may not do. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George

Unemployment report send equities spiraling!

As if the European crisis wasn’t enough. Yesterday’s unemployment report was a stark reminder that our own economy is by no means out of the woods yet. U.S. employers added only 69,000 jobs to their payrolls, far less than the 150,000 that most economists projected. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 8.2%. This sent the markets into a tailspin with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) losing 274.88 points, the Nasdaq (chart) -79.86, the S&P 500 (chart) -32.29 and the Russell 2000 (chart) -24.40 points. Couple yesterday’s tape with the 6%+ decline for the key indices in May, and you have almost a 10% correction in a month and a day!

Too far too fast? Not so sure? Unless the governments and central banks unite over this weekend and come up with some sort of an additional stimulus plan, we could be in for further downward pressure on Monday and the rest of next week. I am not suggesting that the central banks should step in every time we have a market meltdown, but with the incessant debt crisis in Europe and now our own economy faltering, there may not be another alternative.

As an investor/trader in this type of market environment, one must exercise extreme caution. For me it would be easy to say “well the markets have now officially broken down and broke through key technical support levels, let’s go short” and probably that strategy would work. However, I have seen this movie before in whereas technically and fundamentally speaking equities appear to heading a lot lower. Then you wake up one morning and indeed the governments from around the world come up with a blanket plan to place a floor under the markets and then the massive rally begins.

Point being this, we live in a very different world today and what appears to be undervalued or for that matter overvalued in the marketplace, it really doesn’t matter. So long as you have accommodative Fed policies, the markets will trade according to the central bank(s) guidelines, not on fundamentals. Good luck to all.

Have a great weekend 🙂

~George