The 200-Day Breached…

In my March blog I highlighted the 200-day moving average and questioned whether or not this key support zone would hold on the major averages. Low and behold the 200-day moving averages were breached for the better part of the month only to come roaring last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see chart here) closed the month up slightly at 33274, the S&P 500 (see chart here) also closed in the green at 4109, the Nasdaq Composite (see chart here) closed the month up at 12221 points, however the small-cap Russell 2000 (see chart here) did not recapture its 200-day and closed the month of March lower at 1802.

As mentioned above, although the markets experienced heavy selling pressure last month which was fueled by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, in the final the week of March the markets experienced a meaningful rally which propelled most of the major averages right back through their respective 200-day. The response to this 200-day breach and how the major averages blew right past this technical line is seemingly bullish.

With the first quarter in the books market participants will now begin to focus on Q1 earnings reporting season to see how well corporate America is doing. Last month there was the shock of Silicon Valley Bank failing and that certainly drew the attention of the Federal Reserve. This event may guide the Fed going forward to change their current interest hike program. If the Fed starts easing interest rate hikes this could help the overall selling pressure that the markets have experienced so far this year. Furthermore, if Q1’s earning reporting season goes better than expected or at least if companies guide up a bit, this may be enough to quell the selling.

Let’s see what is in store for April and hopefully we continue to see the selling pressure ease up. Good luck to all 🙂

~George

A Tough Quarter For Stocks…

It was a tough quarter for stocks as the markets dealt with and continues to deal with the war in Ukraine, runaway inflation, rising interest rates and the seemingly never ending Covid dynamic. For Q1, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (see chart here) and the S&P 500 (see chart here) lost nearly 5%. The Nasdaq Composite (see chart here) lost more ground closing out the quarter down 9%. Last but not least, the small-cap Russell 2000 (see chart here )  also closed Q1 down 9 %.

As mentioned above, it was a tough quarter for stocks and indexes but with the current state of global backdrop my feelings are we are quite lucky to not of experienced more of a drawdown. In fact, I am very surprised if not shocked that we did not see a 20 percent sell-off or more due to these major headwinds. So, this begs the question as to why there was not more of a correction? Could it be corporate earnings will surprise the street once Q1 earnings reporting season kicks off here in April? Or could it be that while interest rates are going up and will continue to do so, that rates are still relatively low, and money continues to get put to work in the overall markets? I do think that this upcoming earnings reporting season will be one of the most important metrics in years pertaining to whether stocks find their footing or continue to be under pressure. The one other metric I will be paying close attention to is yield curve inversion. For the first time in years the 2-year Treasury yield surpassed the 10-year and historically when that happens the chances for a recession increase. So, as you see there is much to learn over the coming weeks and throughout the summer.

Last but not least, when I look at the current technical shape of the aforementioned key indexes, all of them are trading right around their respective 20-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Based on this action it is possible that we see a breakout above and/or a breakdown below these historic support and resistance lines.

Good luck to all 🙂

~George

 

 

Late April Sell-Off Wakes Up The Bears…

Stocks sold off sharply on the last trading day of April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (chart) fell 195 points, the Nasdaq (chart) closed down 82.22 points, the S&P 500 (chart) lost 21.34 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 (chart) finished lower by 26.83 points. The biotech sector has lead the charge in this most recent selloff with the most popular biotech ETF (Symbol: IBB) (chart) losing over 10 percent of its value since mid-March. Another factor in this sell-off is the sloppy earnings reporting season we find ourselves in. Just this week both Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) and Linkedin (NYSE: LNKD) surprised the street with their weak quarterly results and even weaker forward guidance. So the selling pressure is not just in the biotech space, it has now spilt over to the technology sector as a whole. That said, this morning there may be a bit of a respite with the futures market pointing up sharply.

Let’s take a look at the technical shape of the markets as we now enter into May. One troubling sign is the four major averages mentioned above have all breached their 50-day moving average line, with the small-cap Russell 2000 falling prominently below it. Let’s see if these key indices remain below this popular technical indicator for more than a few days. A one day breach does not necessarily mean a total technical breakdown however, another slight concern of mine is that these averages are not oversold yet according to the relative strength index or the RSI. Click here for the definition of the RSI. Now take a look at the charts of the Dow (chart), Nasdaq (chart), S&P 500 (chart) and the Russell 2000 (chart) and you will see at the very top of the chart the plot of the relative strength index and you will further see that these indexes have more room to go to reach the 30 value level of the RSI, which is the level that qualifies an oversold condition. Now throw into the mix that May is historically a weak month for equities and we indeed be in for some additional selling pressure.

In closing, I will re-visit the technical make-up of the markets in mid-May and see where there could be some buying opportunities. Good luck to all 🙂

~George